APPROVED
at
a meeting of the Government of the Russian Federation
Protocol
No. 42, dated December 30, 2009
THE ANTI-CRISIS GUIDELINES OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOR 2010
1. INTRODUCTION
The results of the third quarter of 2009 show that the Russian economy has passed the acute phase of the crisis, as evidenced by the resumption of economic growth in the second half of 2009. According to preliminary estimates, GDP grew 1.1% in the third quarter and 1.9% in the fourth quarter (including seasonal factors).
The anti-crisis measures improved the situation on the labour market and facilitated stabilisation in the agricultural sector. The decline of annual industrial production slowed considerably, from 14.3% in the first quarter to 5% in the fourth quarter. As a result, industrial production is expected to fall by 11.5% in 2009 compared to a growth of 2.1% in 2008. GDP decline in 2009 will be no greater than 8.5%.
The government's anti-crisis policy not only prevented deeper decline, but also ensured a relatively rapid resumption of positive growth rates. Other crucial factors were the growth in global market prices for hydrocarbons and other Russian export goods and a revival of the global economy, primarily in Southeast Asia.
At the same time, positive economic changes were accompanied by a rapidly falling inflation rate, indicating that the growth is sustainable and not based on the appearance of new bubbles in the markets. The situation in the social sphere also remained stable: the implementation of the anti-crisis package limited the growth of social tensions and kept in check unemployment, which stood at 8.1% of the economically active population as of the end of November compared to 9.1% at the end of March.
However, these positive trends are not sufficiently stable. Economic growth and increased industrial production in some sectors was accompanied by decline in other sectors. The key drivers of stable growth, investment and lending, continued to stagnate.
The economy is still dominated by those factors that provoked its fast and rapid fall in the first place, notably a dependence on global commodities' export prices, low domestic demand and Russian industry's inability to satisfy it, as well as a weak financial system and a lack of long-term loans. The initial stage of the government's anti-crisis policy, in late 2008 and 2009, did include a pro-modernisation component, but was largely aimed at cushioning the economy and the population from the consequences of the crisis, and at preventing irreparable damage to the country's industry and technology.
This means that as things stand further growth will be unstable because short-term internal economic risks have not been removed, slower than expected because it will depend on the revival of the global economy, and it will reproduce the economic model the government sought to abandon before the crisis.
These measures will not ensure Russia's economic modernisation or help attain the long-term goals and objectives formulated in the Concept of Long-term Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation until 2020 (hereinafter referred to as the Concept) and the Guidelines for the Activities of the Russian Government through 2012.
Therefore, the policy should be adjusted to move the focus from measures aimed at immediate anti-crisis support for various sectors of the economy, the business community and population as a whole to measures envisaging the creation of a new industrial potential, modernisation, innovation and at improving the quality of the labour force. This adjustment of focus should, within two or three years, enable the economy to overcome the failure in 2009 to meet the approved modernisation schedule as formulated in the Concept.
However, this adjustment does not mean that the anti-crisis measures will be terminated. They will continue to be implemented throughout 2010. Moreover, supporting economic revival and turning nascent economic growth into sustainable development will be major priorities. New measures will be approved as necessary, and resources will be allocated from the anti-crisis reserve of the federal budget of 195 billion roubles. Particular attention will be paid to unemployment problems, social assistance, pensions, and the problems of one-company towns.
2. KEY PRIORITIES
The key priorities of the government's anti-crisis and modernisation policy in 2010 will be:
- Preserving social stability and full-scale social assistance;
- Efforts to facilitate economic revival and ensure the stability of nascent positive trends;
- A more active modernisation agenda stipulating priority measures to resolve the problems in the country's economy that exacerbated the speed and intensity of the economic downturn (a weak financial system, undiversified economy and exports, and non-competitiveness of a considerable part of manufacturing enterprises), to improve the institutional environment, develop a new governance model (including in the financial markets), and increase investment in human resources.
2.1. Preserving social stability and comprehensive social insurance
Ensuring effective social protection for the population remains a key anti-crisis priority. Employment supporting mechanisms will be improved, and social programmes will be implemented more effectively.
Pensions will increase considerably from January 1, 2010 through the introduction of a valorisation mechanism for the financial evaluation of pensioners' rights. A new type of targeted social assistance will be introduced: a social premium will be given to the pensions (federal or regional) for non-working, low-income pensioners aimed at raising them to the pensioners' minimum income as stipulated in the given constituent entity of the Russian Federation.
In accordance with the federal law "On the Federal Budget for 2010 and the Planning Period of 2011 and 2012", next year social payments and allowances will be raised 10% to ensure they maintain their purchasing capacity, which is an increase above the expected inflation rate.
In 2010, the government will start introducing social contracts (social adaptation contracts), which detail the mutual responsibilities of the recipients of target social assistance and the social insurance agency at their place of residence. This entails: drafting legislation, restructuring the work of social insurance agencies on a regional and municipal level, improving the procedures for establishing individuals' financial status and introducing the necessary software.
Social assistance will become more effective; in particular, the programmes of the Fund of Assistance to Children in Need will be continued and effective mechanisms will be devised to support the social projects of non-commercial organisations.
2.1.1. Easing tension on the employment market
The implementation of regional programmes in 2010 will make it easier to find jobs in a tense employment situation and enhance the quality of workforce through introducing vocational training for 146,200 people, providing on-site training for 85,300 graduates, measures to encourage the creation of 1.4 million additional jobs (including 12,000 jobs for disabled people), and providing start-up business assistance to 169,100 people.
As much as 36.3 billion roubles will be allocated from the 2010 federal budget for these purposes.
Subsidies from the federal budget will be allocated to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for co-financing regional programmes in sectors which saw positive results in 2009, such as:
- organising community work and temporary employment for those who are likely to lose their jobs;
- introducing vocational training for personnel facing dismissal, and on-site training for graduates to help them gain work experience;
- helping the unemployed become self-employed and encouraging formerly jobless people who have started up a business to create additional jobs for the unemployed;
targeted assistance for people to help them relocate;
as well as in such new areas as:
preventive vocational training for pilots and flight engineers who are likely to be dismissed during the reorganisation and modernisation of civilian air carriers;
helping disabled people find work.
In 2010 the forecast number of unemployed people registered with employment agencies will be maintained at the 2009 level (2.2 million).
The authorities will continue to monitor migrant workers in 2010 to ensure the priority right of Russian citizens to take up vacancies in the labour market.
Special attention will be given to efforts to encourage foreign citizens employed by private individuals in Russia to ensure these arrangements are legal. Legislation will be amended to include a clause allowing foreign citizens to obtain licences allowing them to legally live and work in any given constituent entity of the Russian Federation.
2.2. Encouraging economic revival
Further anti-crisis measures will be taken to encourage positive trends in key sectors of the Russian economy. At the same time, changes will be made to the way such measures are formulated and how their implementation is monitored.
First of all, the most effective measures applied in 2009 will be continued. The implementation of some of long-term measures stipulated in the government's anti-crisis package for 2009 will continue in 2010. Allocations for them will amount to 233 billion roubles. Loan assistance to the regions will be continued and state guarantees will be extended to cover loans taken out by strategic enterprises. The implementation of certain measures will be prolonged in accordance with government decisions including the purchase of automobiles for federal government agencies and the allocation of subsidies to passenger airlines whose licences have been revoked.
New measures will be formulated with due consideration paid to the government's 2009 anti-crisis policy. The main goal of the anti-crisis measures in 2010 is to ensure maximum effect using smaller budgetary allocations.
The government will proceed from the following priorities when working to ensure the sustainability of nascent positive economic trends in 2010.
2.2.1. Expanded access to financing for companies, restructuring non-financial companies' debts.
One of the key goals is stabilising the banking sector and ensuring that companies have access to commercial loans on reasonable terms. To this end, the following policies will be pursued:
- consistent cooperation with large and leading companies in key economic sectors aimed at restructuring their debt as obligations under development programmes, developing new products and completing major projects of national importance. This policy will particularly apply to the United Aircraft Corporation, the Oboronprom industrial corporation, AvtoVAZ, and the Uralvagonzavod research and production corporation. Government support will only be provided to companies which have detailed business development programmes agreed with partner banks. The programmes should contain measures to ensure financial strength in the short term as well as long-term strategies to boost and maintain competitiveness.
- developing solutions, in association with the Bank of Russia, to improve banks' liquidity positions, involving the Bank of Russia refinancing instruments or pledge operations.
- improving the legislation regulating creditor-borrower relations on public and non-public markets, to provide market players with greater opportunities for compromise.
- improving the bankruptcy procedure.
2.2.2. Support of domestic demand
The stagnation of domestic demand, both individual and corporate, is a significant short-term risk. It is aggravated by unemployment and decrease in personal incomes as well as by tightening corporate finance. Demand stagnation, in turn, limits economic growth based on internal market potential.
In addition to the policies adopted in 2009, the government will take action to stimulate demand and encourage nascent economic growth. The government will primarily focus on stimulating demand for products in sectors hardest hit by the 2009 crisis, as well as in sectors which have a significant multiplier effect on demand for products in related sectors and which support employment. These sectors include the automobile industry and housing construction.
To support the national automotive industry subsidies for buying new vehicles will be granted to individuals handing in old vehicles for scrappage. The government will allocate 11.05 billion roubles for this policy, with the size of each subsidy reaching 50,000 roubles. This measure will help increase demand, update the car pool and reduce traffic accidents.
In 2010, the government will take measures to support domestic pharmaceutical projects, with a view to create, in 2011-2012, an environment to increase the share of Russian-made drugs on the domestic market.
With regard to housing construction, more measures will be taken to support the residential property market and to accelerate the application of a law on supporting housing construction cooperatives. The first cooperatives will be set up across Russia supported by the Federal Fund to Support Housing Construction. Development institutions in the housing sector will coordinate their work more accurately in order to ensure an effective use of budget funds allocated to stimulate housing construction. To stimulate housing construction and people's relocation from dilapidated housing and buildings unfit for habitation, the government will make an additional contribution of 15 billion roubles to the Housing and Utilities Reform Fund state corporation.
The use of Maternity Capital for the purchase of housing is another government policy aimed at stimulating domestic demand; the funds will become available in 2010. A total of 102 billion roubles may be channelled into housing construction. State demand for housing will also be supported, also through the programme providing military servicemen with housing; 44.4 billion roubles will be allocated for this purpose.
The various "encumbrances" on developers will be minimised, and a system of territorial planning documents will be completed in 2010-2011. In 2010, the national construction norms and regulations will be largely reformed, and adjusted for the modern construction technologies and the technical regulations reform.
Policies will be pursued to radically improve the effectiveness of state demand. This especially concerns transport infrastructure projects. The government will also take measures to ensure that budget financing reach its destinations sooner, also through tighter control of prompt signing of state contracts and state acquisitions.
2.2.3. Expanding the economic growth base: developing small business
Small businesses are an important factor in sustained economic revival and economic growth.
To ensure the rapid expansion of this sector, the 2010 government SME support programme has been adjusted to include more kinds of support.
SME support will emphasise modernisation, industrial production and innovation. The SME lending programme, launched in 2009 by the Russian Development Bank, will become fully operational in 2010, as will the guaranteeing of funds for loans to small businesses.
Small and medium-sized businesses will be able to take out 100 billion roubles in loans through the Russian Development Bank's partner banks, and another 80 billion roubles in guarantees. Small businesses will be intensively involved in implementing energy efficiency programmes, also as corporate energy auditors.
The SME supervision and control system will be further improved. Special emphasis will be placed on customs and tax control, and on the actions of law-enforcement agencies in relation to small businesses. There is a plan to simplify the current SME licensing procedure, largely replacing it with the notification of business startup.
The government will continue providing financial support to startup businesses through regional employment programmes.
2.2.4. Restructuring the economy in one-company towns
One-company towns, ie towns whose economy entirely depends on one principal employer, a major company which also accounts for the bulk of the local budget and supports the local social services, may bear the brunt of the economic downturn.
The government needs to be effective and proactive if it is to ensure sustained upward economic trends in these areas. A number of such towns, including Togliatti and Nizhny Tagil, require prompt economic restructuring, because there is a risk that problems there could adversely affect the economy of entire regions and whole sectors.
The government has approved a list of one-company towns to be included in these rehabilitation programmes. In 2010 a total of 10 billion roubles in subsidies will be allocated from the federal budget for this purpose, and another 10 billion as loans to the regions. The programmes will not concentrate on supporting jobs in ineffective companies, but rather will focus on reorganising these major employers, creating alternative jobs, and diversifying the local economy. This will be done though SME support programmes in one-company towns: industrial estates will be built and business incubators set up. Up to 2 billion roubles of the total amount of financing planned for rehabilitation of one-company towns will be allocated to these ends.
2.3. Modernisation measures
The years 2010 and 2011 are key years in terms of ensuring Russia is on the right trajectory of innovative socially-oriented development, as planned in the Concept. The economic crisis has seriously affected Russia's starting position on this modernisation drive, with practically every sector of the economy experiencing some negative effects. Instead of laying down the foundations for innovative growth, the first stage of the Concept (2009-2012) will to a considerable extent be spent on restoring the pre-crisis position.
At the same time, it is those policies put in place during the next two years that will determine the quality of economic growth after 2012 and the possibility of achieving the long-term economic development objectives. If they are to be achieved, we must, as early as 2010, see a substantial adjustment towards the modernisation agenda, reorienting not only the current activities of the Russian government, but also shifting the focus of fiscal and monetary policy towards the goal of shaping a new economic structure.
The modernisation agenda entails:
- creating the necessary economic conditions to shift economic policy away from anti-crisis concerns towards addressing the modernisation challenge. Such conditions include macro-economic stability and seeing an improvement in those economic institutions that guarantee the expansion of economic activity (the application of laws, minimising bureaucratic obstacles, and a tax system that stimulates growth);
- the Russian government's implementation of measures aimed at speeding up the process of economic modernisation. This means encouraging innovation and investment in the economy, developing infrastructure (transport, energy and telecommunications), the additional stimulation of domestic demand for Russian-made products, improving the situation in depressed areas and the creation of new regional "growth hubs".
The government's modernisation agenda will be pursued along the following lines.
2.3.1. Economic diversification, supporting domestic demand, creating new cutting edge production systems
A policy of economic and export diversification will be vigorously pursued to achieve a considerable reduction in the economy's dependence on the market prices for raw materials. The main measures taken in this area will be:
- improving the system of technical regulation with a view to encouraging enterprises to make more technologically advanced products. Speeding up the establishment of a modern system of technical regulations and national standards, including by borrowing regulations and standards from the EU and certain CIS countries;
- drawing up long-term technical policy programmes corresponding to key aspects of state purchases, as well as purchases by state owned companies and state corporations, so that real sector enterprises have guidelines under which to plan the development and manufacturing of new products;
- stepping up the formulation and implementation of an export support programme. Creating and funding an Agency for Export Insurance (up to 30 billion roubles). Increasing financial resources allocated to support exports (bringing export-supporting subsidies in 2010 to 10 billion roubles);
- creating (together with Vnesheconombank, the Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies state corporation, other development institutions and state owned banks) a mechanism of administrative and financial support for "offset" deals with foreign companies, entailing a gradual localisation of the manufacture of modern high-tech products and equipment, opening applied research, development and engineering centres in Russia, and organising full-scale production, including in partnership with Russian manufacturers, involving the transfer of knowhow and intellectual property rights to them;
- changing the tax system to make it more stimulating for the economy, and orientating it towards modernisation and support for innovation, including the formulation and adoption of a package of tax breaks in areas expected to generate new tax revenue.
In order to encourage the creation of new enterprises and to implement new investment projects, mechanisms to support the establishment of business and industrial estates in the regions, must be developed, based on the principles of co-financing by the federal centre and the regions.
As the anti-crisis support is withdrawn, the development institutions (Vnesheconombank and the Investment Fund of the Russian Federation) will shift their focus back to their original purpose: the long-term investment in key projects, above all in the establishment of new production operations.
The policy of inviting investment will be accelerated, including through active work with investors and by offering simpler and quicker administrative procedures for agreeing the launch of new investment projects.
With a view to boosting production renovation, introducing new production and management technologies and making Russian companies more competitive, migration policy will be reviewed. It will move away from the restrictive model to the targeted attraction and retention in Russia of those categories of migrant workers who are required for economic modernisation, such as: managerial and engineering personnel, professionals, scientists, and highly skilled workers.
2.3.2. Economic innovation incentives
A number of decisions stipulating innovation incentives, primarily the establishment of the Presidential Commission on Modernisation and Technological Development of the Russian Economy were adopted in 2009. The 2010 federal budget has set aside 10 billion roubles to implement the Commission's technological initiatives. Facilitating effective work on high-priority areas, such as these technological initiatives, singled out during the Commission's work, ranks among the most important new tasks in this policy of innovation. Mechanisms of financial and organisational support for project implementation under these initiatives by the public and private sectors must be created. Such mechanisms are to involve Vnesheconombank, the state-owned Russian Nanotechnology Corporation and the Fund for Promoting the Development of Small Businesses in Science and Technology.
The following additional innovation-support measures will be considered:
- creating a system for allocating budgetary grants (subsidies) to enterprises in high-priority innovative areas, including the implementation of R&D projects, developing and designing new types of innovative industrial products and compensating expenses for obtaining a patent abroad;
- increasing state support for the creation of small innovative businesses through the re-capitalisation of the Fund for Promoting the Development of Small Businesses in Science and Technology;
- drafting and implementing corporate innovative development programmes that meet government requirements in state owned corporations and companies with state capital;
- stipulating an easy-term transitional period in view of the rising burden on the wage fund for specific categories of innovative enterprises;
- registering intellectual property with the due consideration of R&D expenses;
- increasing the easy-term (1.5-fold writing off of expenses) R&D list, streamlining its administration, including by drawing up a list of scientific organisations entitled to submit findings on whether corporate R&D projects qualify, to the tax authorities;
- providing profit tax and property tax breaks to a separate category of innovative enterprises;
- stipulating the amortisation (depreciation) periods for non-material assets directly used in science, technology and manufacturing, including inventions, working models and patents at the company's discretion: from 2 to 10 years or on the basis of available documents;
- supporting federal target programmes for the creation of innovation zones around universities, research centres and major and largest corporations, including companies with state capital, through development institutions.
2.3.3. The development of key high-tech and infrastructure sectors of the economy
As the economy emerges from the crisis, it is important to encourage faster growth in high-priority state sectors, such as high-tech and sectors linked with defence and security, and sector responsible for refining the economic system.
In order to accomplish this, throughout 2010, sectoral strategies and programmes will be updated, with due consideration given to the new economic conditions. Areas covered include the aviation industry, the defence industry, electronics and the development of the transport network. A strategy for the development of the automotive industry will be drafted, stipulating a wider use of the public-private partnership in solving problems the industry faces regarding its technological development.
The state will become more actively involved in restructuring strategic sectors of the economy, facilitating internal competition and promoting products on global markets.
Aiming to boost both the competitiveness of enterprises and their technological levels, the Russian Nanotechnology Corporation state corporation, Vnesheconombank and banks with state capital will implement measures to purchase foreign production assets needed to modernise key economic sectors.
Projects aiming to boost energy efficiency will be implemented throughout 2010 on both a regional and municipal level. Economic energy efficiency incentives will be implemented by enterprises in compliance with the existing legislation.
2.3.4. Providing long-term loans
The long-term stability of the banking system and the Bank of Russia's policy of reducing inflation will allow long-term loans to be issued. However, they alone cannot supply sufficient funds to facilitate economic modernisation. Therefore, it will be necessary to turn to the financial markets.
The most important sources of long-term loans, the pensions and insurance systems, will be utilised. The state policy for the long-term development of life insurance will be drawn up. The wider use of savings as a source of long-term loans through increased bank deposit periods will be considered.
It is envisaged that foreign investors should have a role in creating long-term investment resources. This will be accomplished by attracting and supporting long-term foreign investment through setting up joint investment funds involving foreign investors in strategic sectors that require modernisation, including agriculture, the pharmaceutical industry, affordable housing and infrastructure.
The government will reduce the share of state property in the economy in order to attract domestic and strategic foreign investment. This will be done through privatisation by means of open public proceedings on the basis of tenders and auctions, including the floating of privatised companies' shares in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) and SPOs (Secondary Public Offerings).
New financial instruments facilitating the long-term funding of key economic projects will be introduced. For instance, infrastructure and "project" bonds, including those guaranteed by the Russian Federation, will be issued.
2.3.5. Modernising the financial system
The system regulating the financial markets will be modernised to make financial services more reliable and enhance the effectiveness of mediation. It will also make the Russian financial market more attractive to investors and other companies, and will facilitate the formation of an international financial centre in Russia.
To these ends it is essential to establish a system of prudential supervision at the stock exchange, draft laws countering the use of insider information, and specify bankruptcy procedures for financial organisations.
It is essential to create economic conditions enabling the increased capitalisation of and lending activity in the banking sector. If need be, the Russian government will carry out a recapitalisation programme by exchanging federal loan bonds for the banks' privileged shares to support the banking sector during the crisis.
The government will continue its efforts to develop insurance mechanisms, in particular, by creating economic incentives and laws introducing new forms of insurance. Insurance must be introduced in those industries where it is designed to replace licensing and to guarantee protection against force majeure. Standards for insurance companies will be increased, including the minimal size of their capital and the improvement of prudential supervision on the insurance market.
2.3.6. Developing human resources
The government will take measures to enhance research and innovations-based activity at higher educational institutions, first of all, through the additional support of national research institutes and federal universities. It will allocate an additional 30 billion roubles to re-equip research facilities and laboratories, and to fund a programme of scientific exchanges, which will include invitations to the best foreign and expatriate scientists to work in Russia. The government will also take measures to develop continuing education so as to improve qualifications and standards of the workforce, and to increase the flexibility of the labour market.
To enhance the accessibility and quality of healthcare the government will take measures to improve relevant legislation:
- mechanisms to increase the transparency and financial independence of healthcare institutions will be put in place, while institutional legislation on healthcare institutions is being amended;
- the government will specify the Programme of State Guarantees of Free Healthcare and determine the list of paid medical services;
- the basis for a move to predominantly one-channel healthcare funding through a system of medical insurance, including uniform rules for the payment of insurance contributions on compulsory insurance of the unemployed population, will be established;
- the government will improve its price regulation mechanisms to ensure that most important medicines are made affordable.
As part of its policy on physical fitness, sports and the promotion of a healthy lifestyle the government will take measures to make sports facilities more accessible to different strata of the public and to gradually involve more people in sports.
2.3.7. State sector and budget
One distinct challenge for modernisation will be the restructuring of the state sector: stepping up privatisation and reforming budget-funded organisations.
Efforts to restructure the state sector, develop and implement programmes for improving corporate governance of joint-stock companies of mainly state ownership and state corporations will be accelerated, as will the privatisation and restructuring of state-sector enterprises.
A separate goal connected with limiting costs in the state sector and the budget, as well as in other areas of state-financed investment projects, will be to create a Federal Contract System, which incorporates instruments and institutions for planning and allocating state expenses, monitoring costs in infrastructure development, and using budget resources to implement these investment projects.
Legislation on state purchases will be amended to promote innovation and modernisation through a system of government contracts.
Further efforts will be taken to make budget spending more effective, above all by restructuring the network of budget-funded organisations concerned with placement of government orders and by establishing budget efficiency indicators for institutions.
2.3.8. Aspects of modernisation in macroeconomic policy
In 2010, the approach to the main aspects of macroeconomic policy will be refocused. Instead of mitigating the effects of the crisis, providing more liquidity and using budget resources to stimulate the economy, gradual steps will be taken to move to a post-crisis policy of creating stable macroeconomic conditions for long-term economic development.
In fiscal policy, the emphasis must be on development and modernisation. The focus must be shifted from anti-crisis support for various sectors of the economy and provisions for social security to fostering potential for future growth and laying the foundations for an innovation-oriented development model. At the same time, efforts will be made to reduce the federal budget deficit.
Lowering costs and increasing efficiency in the budget will become key aspects of making budget spending more effective. A programme will be adopted and put into effect to cut out ineffective expenses and surplus functions, optimise the network of budget funded organisations, and to reorganise most budget-funded organisations along new lines involving tenders for social services.
3. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN 2010
Higher than expected oil prices in the second half of 2009 and the faster recovery of the world's economy have improved the outlook for economic growth in the coming year.
Most of the larger economies hit the bottom of the crisis by the third quarter of the year and then resumed economic growth. Thus, following a 2% fall in 2009, the world economy is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2010, 3.3% to 4.1% in 2011, and 3.8% to 4.8% in 2012.
The comparatively favourable conditions on the global market combined with the Russian government's effective anti-crisis measures will ensure the consolidation of these positive trends, and a positive dynamic in most macroeconomic indicators in 2010.
Investment in fixed assets will start growing and increase by 2.9% in 2010. High raw materials prices will not only benefit export revenues, but also reduce risks and spur investment. Lending terms are expected to ease substantially in the second half of the year. Investment in the raw materials sector will increase, and agriculture, transport (including pipelines and roads) and the communications sector will all also see increased investment.
Growing investment and external demand will help restore the industrial production index, which will rise by 2.8% in 2010. A 3.5% growth in manufacturing industries will make a considerable contribution to overall industrial growth.
The rate of inflation will continue to fall steadily. In the first half of 2010, it will remain low (an annualised 6% to 7%) due to restrictions on demand and a forecasted growth of the rouble. Lower prices for the 2009 grain harvest will also have a restraining effect. As the economy regains its strength and demand increases, consumer prices may resume growth. For the year, inflation may be 6.5% to 7.5% .
With the rate of inflation slowing down in 2010-2012 and the economy forging ahead, real incomes in 2010-2012 will rise by 6.5%. Lower inflation will have a favourable effect on real disposable cash incomes of the population: in 2010 they will increase by 3%. The growth in pensioners' incomes will make a significant contribution. The number of unemployed people in 2010 will remain stable, falling to 6.3 million people (8.6% of the working population) throughout the year, compared with 6.4 million in 2009.
The year 2010 will see a resurgence in consumer demand, above all thanks to priority indexing of social benefits and grants, increased cash incomes of pensioners, and restored pre-crisis incomes in commercial organisations as their output rises and inflation falls. Consumer demand will grow by 3.3% over the year. Rising incomes and the recovery in lending will support demand growth in the next few years.
Thus, if existing global economic trends continue, GDP growth will reach 3.1% in 2010. On the other hand, with effective anti-crisis and modernisation measures implemented, and the economy's short-term problems solved (ending stagnation in banking loans, improving competitiveness of most products, and the rouble rate strengthening), the Russian economy may rapidly regain its growth trajectory of 5% to 6%.
Basic macroeconomic indices
|
|
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
Consumer price index, year-end, % |
108.8-109 |
106.5-107.5 |
106-107 |
105-106.5 |
|
Gross domestic product, % growth rate |
91.5 |
103.1* |
103.4 |
104.2 |
|
Industry, % |
88.5 |
102.8* |
102.9 |
104.3 |
|
Investment in fixed assets, % |
82.4 |
102.9 |
107.9 |
110,3 |
|
Paid services for the population, % |
95.5 |
102.9 |
103.8 |
103.8 |
|
Real disposable household incomes, % |
100.7 |
103 |
103.3 |
103.7 |
|
Real pay, % |
96.6 |
100.9 |
102.4 |
103 |
|
Retail trade, % |
94.3 |
103.3 |
104.1 |
104.1 |
* - As forecast by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development. If anti-crisis and modernisation measures are realised and global economic trends improve, this index may be 3.5% higher.
Proposals for the allocation of federal budget funds in 2010 for implementing priority anti-crisis measures
|
Measures |
Federal budget funds for implementing priority anti-crisis measures (million roubles) |
|
Total |
195,000 |
|
including: |
|
|
1. Recipients |
138,965 |
|
Increasing authorised capital of the United Industrial Corporation Oboronprom for repayment of bank loans and interest on loans |
2,477 |
|
Repayment of bank loans of the United Aircraft Corporation: - increasing authorised capital of the United Aircraft Corporation |
10,700 |
|
Subsidies to Russian trading organisations to compensate them for expenses incurred in 2010 during the sale of new Russian made cars to individuals who traded in used cars for scrappage |
11,050 |
|
Investment projects in single-industry towns |
10,000 |
|
Commodity-purchasing interventions to regulate the market of farm produce, raw materials and foodstuffs |
5,038 |
|
Federal authorities purchasing automotive and road-building equipment |
20,000 |
|
Russia's additional property contribution to the State Corporation - Housing and Utility Reform Foundation to extend programmes for major renovation work and rehousing people |
15,000 |
|
Subsidies to Russian automobile and transport machine-building organisations to partially compensate them for expenses incurred in repaying interest on loans taken out in 2008-2010, including those from international financial institutions in which Russia participates to pay for technological upgrades |
2,500 |
|
Subsidies to Russian exporters of industrial products to partially compensate them for expenses incurred repaying the interest on loans taken out from Russian lenders in 2005-2012 to manufacture products for export |
7,000 |
|
Subsidies to Russian lenders to compensate them for the shortfall in revenue on car loans they issued to individuals in 2009-2010 |
1,000 |
|
Russia's property contribution to the authorised capital of the Dzerzhinsky Research and Production Corporation Uralvagonzavod |
10,000 |
|
Support to enterprises and organisations in accordance with the decision of the Inter-Departmental Commission for Monitoring the Financial and Economic Situation of Organisations On the List of Strategic Enterprises and the Inter-Departmental Commission to Support Strategic Enterprises and Organisations of the Defence Industry that Fulfil Government Defence Contracts |
40,000 |
|
Additional measures to ease tension in the employment market in Russian regions |
4,200 |
|
2. Reserve |
56,035 |
